Rising War of Words Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Concerns of Armed Clash

Mounting concerns are present about the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Past Roots of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.