Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
